SPC MD 1376

MD 1376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW YORK

Mesoscale Discussion 1376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...northern New
Jersey...southern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021053Z - 021330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally severe wind gusts are possible over northeast
Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey this morning. A brief tornado
is possible if the storm cluster continues to intensify.

DISCUSSION...Storms over eastern PA have gradually intensified over
the past hour, acquiring broad rotation as they translate
east/northeast along the lifting warm front. Surface analysis shows
72 to 74 F dewpoints which is contributing to around 1000 J/kg
SBCAPE.
Area VWPs and objective analysis show 0-1 SRH between 100-150 m2/s2,
which is typically sufficient for a low-end tornado risk.

Damaging wind gusts appear possible with this isolated storm
cluster. Should the system continue to get better organized, further
tightening of the circulation may occur, with a brief tornado
possible. However, this would appear most likely later today when
heating occurs and boundary layer lapse rates become more favorable.

..Jewell/Grams.. 08/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   40617573 41017534 41317486 41357446 41157422 40817410
            40527428 40427483 40367522 40407556 40477571 40617573 

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