SPC MD 1416

MD 1416 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA VICINITY

Mesoscale Discussion 1416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

Areas affected...western South Dakota vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070131Z - 070230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are organizing linearly over extreme southeast
Montana/far northeast Wyoming. Some accompanying increasing in wind
gust potential has occurred, but need for WW issuance still appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show storms growing
upscale linearly across the northern High Plains, near a surface
warm front lying northwest to southeast across South Dakota.  With a
pool of upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints just downstream from the
ongoing storms contributing to an axis of 2500 to 3000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE along the boundary, storms will likely continue
over the next couple of hours, and possibly beyond as the nocturnal
low-level jet strengthens this evening.

Given the degree of CAPE, and moderate mid-level flow (around 30 kt
at mid-cloud depth) locally damaging wind gusts will remain possible
over the next 1 to 2 hours.  However, as capping gradually increases
this evening, the already limited severe risk may further diminish,
which would preclude any need for WW consideration.

..Goss/Dial.. 08/07/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45500446 45820365 45600270 44970169 44170147 43300254
            43270423 43580498 44660459 45500446 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1416.html