SPC MD 1462

MD 1462 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 110010Z - 110145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat persists across portions of the
TX and OK Panhandles into western OK. There is some chance for a
brief uptick in severe wind and possibly hail should short-term
upscale growth continue. A WW may be needed to address this
scenario.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular complexes, with a history of occasional
severe wind/hail, persist across the TX/OK/KS border area. Latest
mosaic composite radar imagery suggests that upscale growth of two
separate clusters into a single cluster remains possible over the
next hour or so as cold pools potentially merge, as also suggested
by the last couple runs of the HRRR. Should this merger transpire,
relatively steep low-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km per latest
Mesoanalysis) would encourage additional evaporative cooling and
efficient downward momentum transport to promote a brief but
organized threat of damaging gusts, before instability wanes. Given
that uncertainty in this scenario remains, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the possibility of a small, short-term
WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35770199 37110119 37189906 37059824 36569783 35879759
            35369836 34999912 34819997 34770106 34860184 35070240
            35770199 

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