SPC MD 1474

MD 1474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK

Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast KS...Northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 130547Z - 130745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail possible across
south-central/southeast KS and adjacent northeast OK for the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the past 1-2 hours
across south-central KS and adjacent northeast OK. This development
was supported by a strengthening low-level jet and the resulting
warm-air advection across the warm and moist air mass in place
across the southern Plains. Thus far, storms have remained along the
northeastern periphery of the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, in
an area of generally modest vertical shear. Even so, the combination
of modest vertical shear and moderate/strong buoyancy will still
result in updrafts occasionally strong and organized enough to
produce large hail. Warm low to mid-level temperatures (generally
from 850 to 700 mb) will likely keep these storms elevated for at
least the next several hours, minimizing the potential for damaging
wind gusts.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/13/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37569740 38179784 38719728 38689626 36479531 35819580
            35649669 36879712 37569740 

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