SPC MD 1475

MD 1475 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS...EASTERN OK

Mesoscale Discussion 1475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Eastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 130935Z - 131130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increased potential for damaging wind gusts exists across
east-central OK. Large hail remains the primary threat across
northeast OK and southeast KS.

DISCUSSION...Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms have
persisted over the last several hours from southeast KS into
northeast/east-central OK. Development of these storms is being
supported by a moderately strong low-level jet extending from the
southern TX Panhandle northeastward into north-central OK. These
storms were initially elevated above a warm layer between 850 and
700 mb. However, continued storm development over the same location
has likely led to a cooling and moistening of this layer, lowering
storm bases and contributing to an increase potential for strong
wind gusts. Occurrence of this scenario is evidenced by recent
surface observations, with the Tulsa Mesonet site measuring a 64 mph
gust around 0825Z and Bixby Mesonet site measuring a 61 mph gust
around 0855Z. Given these trends and recent increase in
southeasterly storm motion, an increased probability of strong to
severe wind gusts will exist downstream across east-central OK for
at least the next hour or so. Environmental conditions remain
supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms upstream across
northeast OK into southeast KS. Large hail is the primary threat
with these storms, although some damaging wind gust potential also
exist. Additionally, the heavy, training precipitation may lead to
flash flooding, as addressed in Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion
623 from WPC.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/13/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35489629 36489673 37609688 38149674 38299635 37629543
            35319450 34649542 35489629 

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