SPC MD 1478

MD 1478 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 1478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Areas affected...Central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132322Z - 140045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells expected to continue through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Two isolated supercells have developed in Nebraska, a
longer-lived cell in McPherson county and more recent development in
Brown County. Instability is very strong (3000 to 4500 MLCAPE per
SPC mesoanalysis), with effective shear around 30 to 35 kts per KLNX
VWP. This environment should support a continued threat for intense
supercells for the next few hours with a large hail and damaging
wind as the primary threat. Storms will likely diurnally weaken
given the lack of stronger upper-level forcing. Given the isolated
nature of the storms and the relatively short duration they are
expected to persist for, a watch is unlikely.

..Bentley.. 08/13/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40710128 41510117 42260064 42760024 42999990 42999940
            42809906 42329889 41569904 40819979 40590043 40610091
            40710128 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1478.html