SPC MD 1481

MD 1481 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140533Z - 140700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to move slowly east through
the night. A downstream watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into a line which is slowly
moving east across northern Minnesota. This line should continue
eastward through the night as the airmass ahead of these storms
remains strongly unstable with MUCAPE around 2000 to 3000 J/kg (per
SPC mesoanalysis). A southerly low-level jet has strengthened to
around 30 to 35 kts per MPX and DLH VWP. This will also help to
maintain the MCS as it moves eastward.

Thus far, only a few reports of wind damage/wind gusts have been
received from this activity. Expect damaging wind potential to
become even more sparse with eastward extent as the outflow starts
to outrun the convection. Local extensions of watch 433 may be
needed for a few counties, however, no new downstream severe
thunderstorm watch is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   46679272 46159309 45619393 45429540 45609674 45739733
            46139729 46559667 47029617 47299584 47889477 48359425
            48609362 48659268 48399206 48179189 47749225 46679272 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1481.html