SPC MD 1506

MD 1506 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441... FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...

Valid 160144Z - 160315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible
across portions of northern Minnesota; however, overall threat
appears marginal.

DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal convection has struggled to develop, much
less organize, across northern MN this evening. With boundary layer
now cooling across this region, surface-based buoyancy is beginning
to lessen. 00z sounding from INL exhibits sufficient surface-6km
bulk shear for potential supercells; however, low-level convergence
appears to be inadequate for more than isolated, marginally severe
convection. Overall trends do not appear favorable for upscale
growth.

..Darrow.. 08/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47889629 48319557 48679312 48059239 47459412 47349591
            47889629 

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