SPC MD 1515

MD 1515 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444... FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO

Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Areas affected...Northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

Valid 162347Z - 170115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues for a few more hours
in northwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms stretching from Yuma county, Colorado
to Sheridan County Kansas has produced several strong to severe wind
gusts and near severe hail over the past several hours. There is
considerable uncertainty how this activity will evolve over the next
few hours. Outflow has now moved close to 10 miles ahead of this
line and it is moving toward an area which has been convectively
cooled from earlier storms. However, the outflow has been well ahead
of this activity for the last hour and it has been able to sustain
itself and move southward with the outflow producing strong to
severe winds. Additionally, this outflow boundary will collide with
the outflow boundary from earlier storms to the south within the
hour which may lead to an increase in new convection in this region.
The environment remains very favorable for strong to severe winds
with DCAPE around 1600 J/kg. Therefore, expect this line of storms
to continue southward for at least a few more hours with a threat
for mostly damaging winds.

..Bentley.. 08/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40150297 40120225 39770088 39580018 39140006 38560016
            38220075 37900192 37720300 37890366 38270400 38960399
            39870366 40150297 

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