SPC MD 1514

MD 1514 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443...

Valid 162331Z - 170100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues
across southeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells along and ahead of a southward
moving cold front should continue through the evening. The airmass
ahead of this activity remains quire favorable with MLCAPE around
3000 to 4000 J/kg and effective shear around 40 kts per UEX VWP. The
exception is across far southeast Nebraska where drier air is
present and thus instability is more meager. Therefore, expect this
easternmost convection to continue to weaken as it moves into an
increasingly hostile airmass. Farther west where supercells are
expected to persist, both large hail and damaging winds remain
possible. The combination of strong shear and well organized
supercells combined with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km per
SPC mesoanalysis will also support a continued threat for some 2+
inch hail. 

Storms are expected to congeal and interact with several outflow
boundaries in the next 1 to 2 hours. This may eventually lead to a
cluster of storms that could pose a greater severe wind threat for a
few hours as storms approach the Kansas border.

..Bentley.. 08/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40739929 41199838 41459739 41219615 40799573 40219601
            39939759 39869841 40209914 40739929 

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