SPC MD 1529

MD 1529 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern ND and northwestern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190954Z - 191200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may persist for the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection that has developed early this
morning across parts of northwestern MN is largely being supported
by warm advection related to a modest 25-35 kt southwesterly
low-level jet. Additional storms have recently formed along the
ND/MN border, possibly being aided by ascent preceding a subtle
mid-level perturbation moving southeastward across southern
Manitoba. Steep mid-level lapse rates observed on the 00Z BIS
sounding remain present across much of ND and northwestern MN, which
is aiding around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The southwesterly winds
associated with the low-level jet veer quickly with height to
northwesterly at mid/upper levels while also gradually
strengthening. This is supporting 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear,
which is more than sufficient for supercells. Given the stable
boundary layer present across this region, isolated instances of
large hail will likely be the main severe threat with ongoing and
developing convection for the next couple of hours. Expectations are
for storms to remain rather isolated, and no watch issuance is
expected at this time.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   47559770 48009772 48349698 48669595 48449521 47439513
            47019584 47019697 47219744 47559770 

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