SPC MD 1541

MD 1541 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Areas affected...Parts of central and southwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

Valid 220047Z - 220245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
continues.

SUMMARY...An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing
severe wind potential while advancing southeastward across parts of
central and southwestern Minnesota through 9-11 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm development has been maintained
near the MCV, with a gradual upscale growth underway as new storms
form along consolidating surface cold pools.  A broadening area of
50+ kt rear inflow is evident at mid-levels (around 10,000 feet) to
the south of the MCV, and surface gusts to 41 kts have been observed
at Appleton.  Given continuing inflow of boundary-layer air with
surface dew points around 70F, supportive of very large CAPE in
excess of 3000 J/kg, further upscale growth and intensification
still seems probable during the next couple of hours.  Aided by
modestly steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and precipitation
loading, potential for strong to severe surface gusts probably will
increase as well.  Although ongoing activity is advancing eastward
around 20-25 mph, there may be a tendency to accelerate eastward and
southeastward toward the Minneapolis and Mankato vicinities through
02-04Z.

..Kerr.. 08/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...

LAT...LON   45829521 45339381 44509354 43959412 44259526 44359576
            45029527 45829521 

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