Mesoscale Discussion 1542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020
Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 220109Z - 220315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe hail
and strong winds for the next few hours. A watch is not expected due
to the isolated nature of the threat.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has been ongoing across
portions of northeastern NM over the past one to two hours. Most of
these storms have posed only a transient severe risk due to
undercutting outflows and storm interactions. However, recent, more
isolated, cell development to the south and southeast ahead of this
cluster has been noted. This new development is residing in an
environment featuring 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear and
sufficient 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This parameter space suggests storm
organization and a severe hail threat are possible. Occasional MRMS
MESH estimates up to one-inch hail support this idea, and steep (8-9
C/km) 0-3 km lapse rates will also support the potential for
downburst wind gusts with the stronger cells. Nearly straight
hodographs per RAP forecast soundings suggest storm splits are
possible that could gradually increase storm coverage and the
probability of destructive storm interference with time. Overall,
the severe potential is expected to be fairly transient/isolated and
associated with the stronger cells across eastern NM. This
consideration, combined with uncertainties regarding storm mode and
coverage heading into the late evening hours, precludes a watch.
..Moore/Edwards.. 08/22/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34640570 34890470 34780335 34610294 34220291 33640292
33300318 33130376 33110444 33180505 33560551 34180577
34640570
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1542.html
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