SPC MD 1550

MD 1550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NY

Mesoscale Discussion 1550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Areas affected...Central NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231639Z - 231815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging downbursts possible over the next few
hours across central New York.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed near the central
PA/NY border over the past hour or so. Impetus for these storms
appears to be the modest ascent attendant to the weak vorticity
maximum moving northward/northeastward out of central PA. Strong
insolation downstream across central NY has resulted in air mass
destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates. Storm organization
and persistence will likely be mitigated by generally modest
vertical shear, but buoyancy is still be strong enough for updrafts
capable of water loading and isolated strong downbursts.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/23/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42097737 42797710 43057636 42877561 42557543 42087565
            42097737 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1550.html