Mesoscale Discussion 1550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Areas affected...Central NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231639Z - 231815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging downbursts possible over the next few hours across central New York. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed near the central PA/NY border over the past hour or so. Impetus for these storms appears to be the modest ascent attendant to the weak vorticity maximum moving northward/northeastward out of central PA. Strong insolation downstream across central NY has resulted in air mass destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates. Storm organization and persistence will likely be mitigated by generally modest vertical shear, but buoyancy is still be strong enough for updrafts capable of water loading and isolated strong downbursts. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/23/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42097737 42797710 43057636 42877561 42557543 42087565 42097737Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1550.html
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