SPC MD 1555

MD 1555 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Areas affected...southeast North Dakota...northeast South
Dakota...west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240134Z - 240400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely persist and increase in coverage this
evening from southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota, and
a few may produce hail at times.

DISCUSSION...Storms are now increasing in coverage north of the
surface front/outflow boundary over northern SD. The 00Z ABR
sounding showed around 2400 J/kg MLCAPE, prior to receiving outflow.
Meanwhile, midlevel winds are substantial for this time of year with
700 to 500 mb winds around 40 kt between ABR and BIS. This moderate
westerly flow aloft will persist tonight, as winds above the
boundary layer increase out of the southwest to 20-30 kt. While
pockets of drier air may eventually spread northeast out of central
SD, the existing area of moisture and instability should maintain a
threat of elevated storms for several hours, with a few possibly
producing hail as deep-layer shear supports storm longevity.

..Jewell/Grams.. 08/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45339615 45769657 46179762 46319876 46299953 46380002
            46860019 47299980 47499876 47389773 47099628 46719532
            46319480 45909476 45539510 45339539 45339615 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1555.html