Mesoscale Discussion 1577
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
Areas affected...Southern Maryland...Virginia...and Southern West
Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...
Valid 260050Z - 260245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451
continues.
SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will remain possible as
thunderstorms continue to weaken heading into the late evening hours
across WW 451.
DISCUSSION...Observational trends over the past hour have shown a
gradual weakening in most convection along a broken line of
thunderstorms from southern WV eastward into southern MD. Most
segments of the line are becoming outflow dominant, likely the
result of the onset of diurnal cooling as surface temperatures fall
into the upper 70s and low 80s ahead of the line. Recent RAP
mesoanalyses support this idea by showing diminishing MLCAPE and
increasing MLCIN. This stabilizing trend will continue into the late
evening and overnight hours, and storm intensity will continue to
diminish as a result. However, a few pockets of strong convection
persist across southern WV and southern MD, and 30-35 knot deep
layer shear, along with residual 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, will continue to
support organization and a damaging wind threat with the strongest
cells in the near term.
..Moore.. 08/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 37748253 38018175 37908081 38207933 38567683 38737616
38157592 37557574 37217679 36927837 36827969 36808088
36918184 37518265 37748253
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1577.html
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