SPC MD 1622

MD 1622 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Areas affected...southeast Colorado into western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 290240Z - 290445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may persist through late evening from
eastern Colorado into western Kansas, with localized severe gusts or
hail possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has become better organized over
southeast CO, producing strong outflow. While the surface air mass
is cooler in this post-frontal regime northeast of the storms, it
remains unstable. Given the substantial outflow with this system,
lift may be maintained through forward propagation with good SR
inflow. Other sporadic cells cannot be ruled out over southwest KS,
in closer proximity to the residual steep lapse rates just above the
boundary layer.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37830346 39010211 39190118 39180085 38920017 38559992
            38040019 37660082 37270189 37340240 37530313 37830346 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1622.html