SPC MD 1624

MD 1624 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Areas affected...Parts of central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 290720Z - 290915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may continue to be accompanied by
strong, gusty winds through daybreak.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing vigorous cluster of storms near/north of Dodge
City appears supported by a weak mid-level perturbation emerging
from the Southwest, and associated lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection along the northern periphery of a remnant plume of warm
elevated mixed-layer air.  

This activity appears rooted above a substantive surface cold front,
where the pressure gradient is contributing to 25-35 kt
northeasterly flow around 850 mb, northeast through southwest of the
Dodge City area. This may continue to slowly shift southeastward
through daybreak.

Despite a layer of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE for
elevated moist parcels may only be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg,
but modest shear in the convective layer has contributed to
organization of storms.  This includes a compact area of stronger
storms now passing just to the north of Dodge City, near an evolving
MCV, with a rear inflow jet evident to its south.  This includes
speeds in excess of 50 kt as low as around 500 feet, some of which
may have mixed down and contribute to the 50 kt gust recorded at
Garden City.

MRMS CAPPI data does indicate weakening of this convection may be
underway.  However, new thunderstorm development appears underway
closer to the front, near Medicine Lodge, and the larger area of
vigorous thunderstorm development may persist and gradually spread
across much of central Kansas through daybreak.  While locally
strong surface gusts may also continue, any additional severe gusts
probably will remain rather localized and sparse in coverage.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38910011 39239901 39119734 38539608 37699644 37269718
            37099853 37359978 37910054 38910011 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1624.html