SPC MD 1638

MD 1638 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470... FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES

Mesoscale Discussion 1638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 470...

Valid 292342Z - 300115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 470
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a few damaging wind gusts will continue
across WW 470 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar shows a broken line of
convection has emerged from parts of northeast New Mexico into
southeast Colorado, now entering the OK/TX Panhandles. These storms
continue to show signs of congealing as they progress eastward into
richer boundary layer moisture (albeit weak MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg)
associated with modest easterly upslope flow. Meanwhile, westerly
flow aloft is yielding persistent deep-layer effective shear of
25-35 kt, and forcing associated with a weak mid-level short-wave
trough should promote convective organization and persistence of
these storms. Given low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km across much of
the Texas Panhandle, the threat for a few damaging wind gusts should
persist for at least a few more hours. Convective trends suggest the
line of storms will continue to track through WW 470 through 03z.

..Karstens.. 08/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34070280 34210356 34610412 35100466 35380488 35810475
            36140404 36520357 37040309 36960197 36480126 35540061
            34550067 34120122 34070280 

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