SPC MD 1650

MD 1650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern east  central Kansas into
northwest and west central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 310956Z - 311200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be
needed, but thunderstorms developing across the region could pose
increasing potential for marginally severe hail and strong surface
gusts through daybreak.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with a modest, veering
(to an increasingly westerly component) pre-frontal low-level jet
appears to be contributing to ongoing increasing convective
development in a corridor across northeastern and east central
Kansas.  Although the Rapid Refresh suggests that this jet may begin
to weaken shortly, lift appears to be increasingly focused within a
weakness in inhibition associated with the warm elevated mixed-layer
air, where the eastward advection of seasonably high moisture
content is contributing to most unstable CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.  

Given this destabilization, thunderstorm activity seems likely to
continue to develop and intensify through daybreak.  Although the
region will remain between the belts of stronger westerlies aloft,
veering profiles with height along this corridor may be contributing
to deep-layer shear at least marginally sufficient for organized
strong/severe convection.

Furthermore, as a southeastward advancing cold front begins to
overspread the region by 11-13Z, enhancement of lift, where it
intersects this band of elevated convection, may contribute to an
intensifying, upscale growing cluster of storms.  This could be
accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, in addition
to occasional marginally severe hail.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40339513 39539380 38649374 38089457 38389541 39519609
            40039625 40339513 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1650.html