SPC MD 1715

MD 1715 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... FOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN BORDER AREA

Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Areas affected...Western Upper Michigan/Wisconsin border area

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

Valid 260147Z - 260345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail continues, with perhaps some
increase in potential for strong wind gusts, mainly near the Upper
Michigan/Wisconsin state border area through around 10-11 PM CDT.
It is unlikely that another severe weather watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Initial isolated supercell development west of Ironwood
MI is gradually growing upscale near/southwest of the western Upper
Michigan/Wisconsin border area.  While it is possible activity may
become undercut by outflow from convection now spreading inland of
the Upper Michigan Lake Superior coast, low-level
south-southeasterly inflow of moderately unstable air may maintain
vigorous convection another hour or so.  

South/southeast of the Rhinelander WI and Iron Mountain MI
vicinities, a drier and cooler boundary layer appears likely to
persist.  As the evolving convective cluster encounters this air
mass, it may begin to weaken by 03-05Z, as supporting mid/upper
forcing for ascent associated with the short wave trough begins to
shift across and northeast of Lake Superior.

..Kerr.. 09/26/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   46049024 46518932 46678780 46328774 45748956 45779025
            46049024 

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