Mesoscale Discussion 1718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0859 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Areas affected...Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496... Valid 270159Z - 270400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm progressing east of Sawyer Air Force Base may still pose some risk for severe hail and strong surface gusts for another hour or so. Otherwise, the severe weather potential appears to be decreasing and a new severe weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...The stronger lower/mid tropospheric warm advection regime (roughly around the 700 mb level) driving the most vigorous thunderstorm activity continues to spread rapidly east-northeastward. By 03-04Z, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests this forcing will be shifting east of the upper Great Lakes region into southeastern Ontario. One cell, in particular, now progressing east of Sawyer AFB MI, may still be posing some risk for severe hail and strong surface gusts. However, CAPE within elevated moist inflow into this storm may begin to decrease within the next hour or so based on latest objective instability analyses. And there is little else evident to suggest an appreciable increase in severe weather potential over what has occurred the past few hours. ..Kerr.. 09/27/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 46428852 46758659 46378543 46118593 45838805 46428852Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1718.html
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