SPC MD 1719

MD 1719 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern Kansas into Western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271553Z - 271730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms with the potential for large
hail are possible late this morning and into the afternoon. The
relatively isolated nature of the stronger storm coverage may
preclude a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm has recently developed along/near
a southward-moving cold front across portions of Lyon County,
Kansas, with a 1.25-1.5" hail report recently near Admire. RAP
mesoanalysis suggests 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in this area with
effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots. While there may be a tendency
for the cold front to undercut some updrafts, at least a few
updrafts should persist long enough to produce severe hail,
especially given the strong shear through the hail growth zone.
Thunderstorms should continue to move across eastern Kansas and into
Western Missouri, as depicted by several 12Z HREF members. 

While convective coverage may remain too limited for a watch
issuance, trends will continue to be monitored and a Slight Risk
will be added in this area with the 1630Z Convective Outlook to
cover this threat.

..Elliott/Grams.. 09/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39189581 39519474 39339345 38819277 38359296 38059373
            37879465 38019558 38539631 39189581 

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