SPC MD 1729

MD 1729 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 1729
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Mississippi...southwestern
Alabama...and western portions of the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 100723Z - 100930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for brief tornadoes may increase over the next
few hours, within north-south convective bands east of the center of
tropical cyclone Delta.  A tornado watch may become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows the center of gradually
weakening tropical system Delta over east-central Louisiana, moving
slowly north-northeastward with time.  East of the center, two
primary bands of convection are evident -- one extending northward
across southeastern Mississippi, and the other extending
north-northwestward across western portions of the Florida Panhandle
into southwestern Alabama.  

Inland convection within these two bands remains weak/disorganized,
with no lightning observed with convection within either of these
two bands.  However, hints of slightly better organization have been
observed within a few of the offshore cells, along with some very
weak low-level rotation.

A zone of low-level confluence is indicated in the vicinity of these
convective bands, and resulting ascent suggests a continuation of
this convection -- which may consolidate with time into a single,
more pronounced band per recent CAM guidance.  Given the tropical
boundary layer streaming northward/inland (dewpoints in the upper
70s) possibly permitting some minimal degree of increase in CAPE, a
corresponding, small increase in updraft strength/organization may
occur within a few stronger cells.  Given the observed
veering/increasing flow with height yielding 0-1km shear supportive
of updraft rotation, potential for brief tornadoes may increase with
time, possibly warranting tornado watch consideration.

..Goss/Guyer.. 10/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29398878 29898903 30668909 31548952 32158950 32868866
            32648760 32248706 30888648 29658616 29138827 29398878 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1729.html