SPC MD 1951

MD 1951 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 538... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 538...

VALID 162320Z - 170115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 538 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OF ALL TYPES IN WW #0538
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MULTIPLE DISCRETE STORMS
CURRENTLY POPULATE THE WW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
HILL CITY TO GOODLAND. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE INCREASING OVER WW
#0538. AN INTENSIFYING SUPERCELL IN RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA SHOWS
INCREASING RADAR-DERIVED TRENDS IN HAIL SIZE AND MID-/LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION.  STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EXTEND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN CO
AND ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE RED
WILLOW COUNTY STORM. MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR NOW EXTENDS A
COUNTY OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 WITH A SHARP CUTOFF NEAR THE LONGITUDE
OF HASTINGS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS STORM TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

STORMS CLOSER TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN KANSAS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS
BACKING AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF STORMS FROM HILL CITY TO HAYS WITH
DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER STRONG
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS CONTINUES TO FAVOR STORM ROTATION AND A SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL THREAT.  HOWEVER RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE IN THIS AREA.  THIS..ALONG WITH RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS STORMS MAY BE STARTING TO UNDERGO CONSOLIDATION
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF STRONG MESO- AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE
APPROACHING CYCLONE.

ALTHOUGH STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW IN COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OBSTRUCTED BY STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALSO IS DISTURBED BY ANVIL PRECIPITATION
FROM SURROUNDING STORMS.  THEREFORE THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE MCD AREA.

..CONIGLIO/CORFIDI.. 11/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38310198 38770197 39340202 39820194 40320170 40660108
            40820003 40839912 40479881 39639887 39219956 38880048
            38430123 38310198 

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