SPC MD 1952

MD 1952 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SW TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 162350Z - 170045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE A LINE
OF TSTMS  DEVELOPS RAPIDLY ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A
TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE THREAT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A
WW.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
ACROSS LEA COUNTY NM. THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY PLUS ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT -- CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM FAR
NE NM SWWD TO W OF GDP IN FAR W TX -- MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT /INCLUDING TORNADOES/ AHEAD OF THE MAIN SVR THREAT EXPECTED
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND MUCAPE
FROM 500 TO 1000 J PER KG. KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG WITH
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT AND 0-1 KM
SRH APPROACHING 300 M2/S2. 

CURRENT EXPECTATION IS QUICK TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 03Z. AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH
OF THE KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FAST-MOVING LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME
EMBEDDED MESOVORTICIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN A NON-ZERO
TORNADO THREAT DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. A
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THESE POTENTIAL THREATS.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 11/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32080123 30570162 30210225 30540279 31410308 32090309
            32610293 32960276 33230239 33310170 33120135 32670114
            32080123 

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