MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION INTO SW KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 537...
VALID 162356Z - 170130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 537 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME. EVENTUALLY...ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 537...BUT IT MAY STILL BE ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY
NEAR/EAST OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY-LINE TYPE STRUCTURE. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THIS
WILL OCCUR...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED
UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW FINALLY PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AT LEAST THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME.
UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS ITS EASTWARD SURGE...THE STORM MODE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR...WITH ACTIVITY
TENDING TO MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...THAN EAST...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 40-50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
THROUGH 01-03Z...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO 50-60+ KT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED GRADUAL
MOISTENING IN LOWER LEVELS...WHICH MAY OFFSET STABILIZATION TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY IN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES IN
STRONGEST STORMS.
..KERR.. 11/16/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34300214 37340086 37650021 37259919 35439965 34040043
33170134 33310142 33450205 34300214
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