DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NE TX...SE OK AND WRN AR... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND SRN PLAINS OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS STORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX INTO SE OK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DISCRETE CELLS LOCATED NEAR THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT THESE THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WCNTRL TX AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES EWD INTO REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL-LINE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE WEST OF SAN ANTONIO AT 06Z SHOW 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. HAVE MAINTAINED AN ENHANCED AREA JUST TO THE WEST OF SAN ANTONIO WHERE AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION SWWD INTO NE AND CNTRL TX WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LINGER. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM CNTRL AR SWWD TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. ..BROYLES.. 12/27/2015Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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