MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN OK TO WESTERN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 569...
VALID 262352Z - 270115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 569 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX /INCLUDING NEAR THE DFW
METRO AREA/ INTO EAST-CENTRAL/FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. TORNADO WATCH
569 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z/8PM CST.
DISCUSSION...RELATED TO A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF MOIST/CONFLUENCE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...THE
PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING /THROUGH
7PM-8PM CST/ ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-35 ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK
AS FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE I-40 VICINITY. SIMILAR TO THE RECENT
00Z DFW OBSERVED SOUNDING...THE FORT WORTH 88D VWP CONTINUES TO
SAMPLE VERY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ATOP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE-WINDS...WITH 0-1 KM SRH
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 200-250 M2/S2. WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH AT LEAST
TRANSIENT/MODERATE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND THE RELATED RISK FOR AN
ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO. WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT LIKELY CURRENTLY
AT ITS PEAK AS OF 530 PM CST...CURRENT THINKING IS THE DISCRETE
SUPERCELL-RELATED TORNADO RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE-FRONT-DOMINANT CONVECTION INTO MID/LATE
EVENING.
..GUYER.. 12/26/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 31649873 32449855 34169743 35589569 35589441 34589456
31669637 30849686 31649873
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