SPC MD 2072

MD 2072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 270209Z - 270415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION AS STORMS INCREASE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/LOW ROLLING
PLAINS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY. RELATED
TO INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER TROUGH...NORTH-SOUTH BANDS OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS FAR WEST TX WEST
OF THE MIDLAND/LUBBOCK AREAS AS OF 8PM CST. MEANWHILE...OTHER STRONG
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY
/ROUGHLY SPANNING ABILENE TO BROWNWOOD/ WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY VICINITY
INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAXIMIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR/NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 12/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32090227 32770140 33089962 32199918 31289929 30959941
            30190021 29710089 29900171 30420189 32090227 

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