SPC MD 1483

MD 1483 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN/SRN MAINE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN/SRN MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 061630Z - 061900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
SVR RISK CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
MAINE...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING PARTS OF SRN
QUEBEC. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER --
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS -- CONTINUES ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF INTERIOR MAINE TOWARD THE COAST. RELATED
DESTABILIZATION -- E.G. MLCAPE INCREASING TO 750-1500 J/KG -- WILL
ALLOW FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SPREADING
EWD THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF MODERATELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS AND SMALL/LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW DETRACT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR RISK EVOLVING.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH SOME RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OFFERING AN
ATTENDANT SVR RISK...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/HART.. 08/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   44407079 45486954 46096835 46026778 45196726 44786741
            44186896 43597059 44407079 

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