SPC MD 1485

MD 1485 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL VA...SRN MD...WASHINGTON DC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL VA...SRN MD...WASHINGTON DC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061746Z - 062015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS
SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY EMBEDDED WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PERIPHERAL TO THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MESOSCALE LIFT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE...AND
AREAS OF STRONG SFC HEATING FROM PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL VA TOWARD
WASHINGTON DC AND PARTS OF SRN MD...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIME DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY POTENTIALLY FORM IN RESPONSE TO AREAS OF
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD GENERALLY
EWD/ESEWD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT
A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH WATER-LOADING SUPPORTING STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL
SVR RISK AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISORGANIZED.

..COHEN/HART.. 08/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37777613 37227665 37147777 37357902 37957947 38717886
            39107725 38787606 37777613 

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