SPC MD 1486

MD 1486 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN OK...SRN AR...NRN MS...NRN LA...FAR NERN TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...SRN AR...NRN MS...NRN LA...FAR NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061813Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WATCH ISSUANCE IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AT 18Z...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SERN OK/SRN AR INTO NRN MS...WITH
ADDITIONAL RECENT ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION OCCURRING ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG
NOTED PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. WHILE WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE AT LEAST
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RISK...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..DEAN/HART.. 08/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   33489571 34259566 34099256 34729089 34868957 34618911
            33988905 33368908 33008973 32859113 32669247 33489571 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/165YmxS