SPC Jan 23, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will persist this evening across the southern
half of the Florida peninsula, posing a risk for tornadoes, damaging
wind and large hail. A limited risk for a couple of instances of
damaging wind and a tornado or two exists over South Carolina and
southern North Carolina this evening.

...Southern half of the Florida peninsula...

Broken line of thunderstorms including bowing segments and discrete
supercells will continue developing within zone of pre-frontal
convergence along the warm conveyor belt associated with a 60 kt
south southwesterly low-level jet. This activity will move south
through the remainder of the peninsula this evening into tonight.
Primary low-level jet will gradually develop north through the
western Atlantic and along the coastal Carolinas in association with
an upper jet rotating through base of a progressive upper low.
Vertical wind profiles with strong /50+ kt/ effective shear and long
but sizeable 0-2 km hodographs (as sampled by the Tampa 00Z raob)
will support supercells and bowing segments as storms move through
remainder of the moderately unstable warm sector. Storms will pose a
risk for tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail through the evening
into the overnight.  

...South Carolina through southern North Carolina...

Primary limiting factor in this region will remain the marginal
thermodynamic environment. Widespread showers persist north of the
warm front that extends from a surface low over northern GA
southeast into southeast GA. The low-level jet will strengthen
across this region tonight in association with an upper jet rounding
base of the progressive upper trough. Vertical wind profiles will
become more than sufficient for severe storms, and bands of
low-topped convection may pose a marginal risk for mainly strong
wind gusts as they develop northwestward. However, weak instability
should limit a more robust severe threat.

..Dial.. 01/23/2017

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