Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2017
Areas affected...Portions of northern FL and southern GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031712Z - 031915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
through mid afternoon, and watch issuance will not be needed.
DISCUSSION...Shallow convection -- containing little to no
lightning -- will continue to evolve across parts of northern FL and
southern GA through the afternoon, within a zone of weak pre-frontal
ascent. Differential-heating-induced baroclinicity peripheral to
denser/multi-layered cloud shields amidst rich low-level moisture
(surface dewpoints in the lower 70s) and related low MLCINH will
support this activity. Destabilizing inflow associated with diurnal
heating will be sufficient for one or two stronger updrafts. With
the JAX VAD wind profile indicating adequate deep shear and
low-level speed shear, a few rotating convective elements capable of
producing locally strong wind gusts (and perhaps a weak tornado)
cannot be ruled out. However, veered low-level winds and related
limitations to low-level convergence and SRH should continue to
mitigate the severe risk through the afternoon. Furthermore, poor
midlevel lapse rates will stunt vertical development with convection
and limit the severe risk.
..Cohen/Edwards.. 01/03/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30548290 30808238 30868180 30678151 30078142 29788232
30028306 30288318 30548290
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wKfHal
No comments:
Post a Comment