Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2017 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models exhibit decent model-to-model agreement with location/progression of major features through Day 4/Sunday, after which increasingly divergent solutions evolve. Generally speaking, the two models are in much better agreement Days 4-5 with evolution of the northern-stream portion of the split-flow regime, while their solutions with respect to evolution of the southern-stream low/trough crossing the southwest and south-central states differ more substantially. As such, while the southeast U.S. could be a focus for an increase in severe potential during middle and/or latter stages of the period as the southern-stream low progresses eastward, confidence in any particular scenario remains quite low from Day 5/Monday onward. Day 4, when models are still in decent agreement, little severe risk is evident at this time, though showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along the east-northeast to west-southwest baroclinic zone slowly shifting southward/southeastward across the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Marginal instability along eastern portions of this front, and capping farther west, should largely limit severe risk.Read more
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