Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast over the Lower 48 states on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Expansive cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the eastern US today. Within this flow regime, a shortwave trough will translate from the northern Plains southeastward to the Ohio Valley, while a sharper impulse will lift from New England into the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface, a cold front will progress south across the Florida peninsula, as a high builds in its wake across the Gulf Coast. A weak, migratory low initially over the mid Missouri Valley will advance to the Ohio Valley during the day. ...Ohio Valley... As mid-level cooling/moistening occurs ahead of the approaching impulse, very weak buoyancy may materialize late in the day. However, meager moisture (e.g., precipitable-water values near 0.3 inches) should keep any convection quite shallow, precluding thunder. ...Florida Peninsula... With the cold front sinking south across Florida, daytime heating will encourage convective development along the eastern coast. While one or two updrafts may become sufficiently deep for an isolated lightning strike, coverage is expected to stay low enough to preclude the introduction of a thunder area. ..Picca/Jewell.. 03/02/2017Read more
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