Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEEP SOUTH TO MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GULF COAST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Deep South into the Midwest, mainly this afternoon into early evening. ...Deep South... A QLCS is ongoing across MS into southeast LA, with a decaying comma-head MCV over north-central MS. This line should be the primary focus for a continuing severe threat this afternoon. Although high-level winds are weak per regional 12Z soundings, strong low-level shear will continue to support embedded mesovortices capable of a few tornadoes and damaging winds. The instability axis will occlude as the eastward surge of the QLCS outpaces Gulf boundary-layer moisture return, limiting a more substantial risk farther north in the TN Valley. ...Midwest... Low confidence persists regarding the likelihood of appreciable destabilization in a scenario that appears otherwise favorable for severe storms given ample deep-layer/low-level shear. This low confidence is related to extensive convection ongoing from the Mid-MS Valley into the Mid/Deep South. A couple clusters of severe storms may develop downstream of this midday activity across parts of IN/KY/OH where diabatic heating should be more pronounced amid middle 60s surface dew points. Farther west over the Mid-MS Valley in the wake of the midday convection, widely scattered storms should attempt to form late afternoon along/near the cold front/surface cyclone track. Instability will probably remain rather weak and deep-layer winds meridional, suggesting overall severe coverage should be isolated. ..Grams/Mosier.. 04/30/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
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