SPC MD 729

MD 0729 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN

Mesoscale Discussion 0729
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Areas affected...Central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161757Z - 162000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...While considerable uncertainty remains, there is some
potential for an uptick in storm intensity this afternoon, with a
conditional risk of large hail and a tornado or two with the
strongest cells.

DISCUSSION...A modest increase in ongoing elevated thunderstorm
activity has recently been noted across far southeast MN into
western WI. This activity is occurring in the vicinity of a
convectively-induced vort max that will move east-northeast across
central WI this afternoon. It remains unclear whether the ongoing
storms will become rooted in the boundary layer and intensify, or if
new surface-based convection will develop, though some heating and
moistening across central WI will support the potential for
surface-based activity to evolve with time. 

Moderate instability and a favorable wind profile (noted in KARX VWP
data) will favor supercell development with any surface-based
convection, with a resulting threat of large hail and a tornado or
two, especially in the vicinity of an outflow boundary draped across
central WI. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the
short-term threat, but watch issuance will be considered if the
supercell threat appears to be increasing.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44809143 45039046 45238931 45108834 44868797 44368810
            44128853 44158903 44168988 44089030 44009073 43989109
            43999136 44089162 44419179 44809143 

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