Mesoscale Discussion 0873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Areas affected...the eastern half of Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 279... Valid 272151Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues. SUMMARY...An extremely unstable airmass is in place across the eastern half of Oklahoma. Once surface-based convective initiation begins, explosive thunderstorm development will lead to rapid supercell evolution with isolated storm coverage expected. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field across the eastern half of Oklahoma with a mid-level ACCAS field across central OK into the greater Tulsa metro. Eroding convective inhibition will gradually prove more favorable for a couple of thunderstorms to develop over the next several hours. 20Z NSSL mobile soundings in Stephens County, OK and in Ardmore, OK showed extreme buoyancy with 6317 J/kg and 6474 J/kg MLCAPE, respectively. The Ardmore 20Z sounding displayed a negligible remaining capping inversion. Effective shear of 48-kt was sampled with both soundings. In summary, explosive thunderstorm development is expected with giant hail an initial risk with the updrafts. Middle to upper 70s degrees F dewpoints and forecast 100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH around 00Z and thereafter will yield a tornado risk (perhaps intense) once established supercells are present. ..Smith.. 05/27/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33959755 35909752 36929633 36919465 33949645 33959755Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/JS7vlJ
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