Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for a couple of tornadoes may persist across portions of the western Gulf Coast region, dependent upon increasingly uncertain movement of Harvey. ...Synopsis... No major change in the overall upper flow field is forecast for Tuesday, with a ridge remaining over the West and a trough in the East. As short-wave troughing within the broader cyclonic flow field over the eastern U.S. shifts northeast across the mid-Atlantic region, a deepening low is forecast to shift north-northeast away from the NC coast through the period. Meanwhile, a weak cool front may move inland across the Pacific Northwest ahead of a trough advancing across the northeast Pacific. Finally, Harvey will likely linger in the vicinity of coastal Texas through the period. ...Parts of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast areas... The broad circulation around the center of Harvey will likely continue to support low-level shear sufficient for some rotation within stronger convective cells Tuesday, along with corresponding/limited risk for brief/weak tornadoes. The areal coverage of this risk becomes increasingly uncertain with time into the forecast period, as large variation in solutions exists among various models. Based on the latest official forecast from the NHC, Harvey will remain over the middle Texas Coastal Plain through Tuesday, which would keep the main risk for brief tornadic spin-ups across the middle and upper Texas coast and into portions of coastal Louisiana. ..Goss.. 08/27/2017Read more
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