SPC MD 141

MD 0141 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MS

Mesoscale Discussion 0141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...Northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190854Z - 191100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts possible for the
next hour or two across the region.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery suggests the storm that just
crossed the MS/AR border into Bolivar county MS may begin
diminishing soon, evidenced by a recent southeastward surge in
forward motion, likely a result of stronger thunderstorm outflow,
and decreased reflectivity aloft. Additionally, this southeastward
surge has occurred as storm interacts with the broad and weak front
draped across the region. Downstream airmass above the boundary
layer is expected to remain thermodynamically favorable for storm
persistence, with vertical shear also remaining favorable for
updraft rotation. As a result, some additional development near this
storm or re-development of the storm itself is possible. Given the
elevated nature of the convection, hail appears to be the primary
threat but downdrafts may occasionally become strong enough to
penetrate the stable boundary layer.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33909090 34329028 34128894 33688827 32948863 33379073
            33909090 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0141.html