Mesoscale Discussion 0142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Areas affected...Far Southeast KS...Southwest MO...Western/Central
AR...Far Eastern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190926Z - 191130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail possible across the region for the next
several hours.
DISCUSSION...Arcing band of elevated convection, extending from far
southeast KS across western AR and into far northeast TX, continues
to show occasionally strong updrafts as it quickly moves
northeastward. This general northeastward progress is expected to
continue as the strong forcing for ascent along the leading edge of
the mid-level jet streak continues northeastward. Downstream
airmass, particularly along the northern extent (i.e. southern MO),
will gradually become more hostile to convection as cooler
temperatures and less favorable low/mid-level moisture result in
less instability. Vertical shear also decreases farther north.
Despite these negative factors, the strength of the forcing for
ascent will likely allow for storm persistence and some isolated
hail will remain possible. Farther south (across AR), prospects for
storm persistence and occasional hail are relatively higher given
the more favorable instability and vertical shear.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/19/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37009503 37359562 38119500 38079307 36639193 34759220
33699343 33799474 34869482 35939469 37009503
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0142.html
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