Mesoscale Discussion 0845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019
Areas affected...Far Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri...Southern
Iowa...Western Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 280623Z - 280830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Wind damage and hail will be possible across far northern
Missouri and far southern Iowa over the next few hours. WW issuance
may be needed and a replacement watch is being considered for
watches downstream.
DISCUSSION...A east-to-west band of strong convection is currently
located along a cold front near the Iowa-Missouri state-line. These
storms are on the northern edge of a corridor of moderate
instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg
range. The instability combined with a slow increase in low-level
flow should result in continued thunderstorm development late
tonight. The WSR-88D VWP at Des Moines shows 0-6 km shear near 45 kt
suggesting that the environment could support rotating storms
embedded in the east-to-west line. If this occurs, then hail and
wind damage would be the primary threats.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39819193 39599275 39459372 39309479 39319544 39559555
40359536 41019480 41219308 41329146 41029084 40609067
40369068 40109088 39819193
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0845.html
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