SPC Jun 23, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms will remain capable of producing severe
weather over parts of the central and southern Plains today, as well
as from the mid Mississippi Valley across parts of the Southeast.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow over
the southern and central Plains with a shortwave trough embedded in
the flow over Oklahoma and Kansas. An MCS is ongoing just ahead of
this feature from northwest Oklahoma into east-central Kansas along
the western edge of a pocket of strong instability. Near the max in
instability in southeast Kansas, the RAP is showing MLCAPE values as
high as 4,500 J/kg. In addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km
shear near 40 kt with some directional shear in the low to
mid-levels. This should continue to be favorable for supercells with
large hail. Very large hail will be possible from near Wichita
northeastward to near the Kansas City Metro along the axis of
strongest instability. As the MCS continues to grow upscale, the
wind damage threat should gradually increase as well.

Further to the northeast into northwestern Missouri and southern
Iowa, a very moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the
lower 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability with the RAP
showing MLCAPE values in the 2,500 to 3,500 J/kg range. Surface
winds across this area are backed to the east which is contributing
to moderate deep-layer shear favorable for severe storms. Supercells
will be possible along with bowing line segments for several more
hours this evening. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the
primary threats.

...Southeast Colorado/Western Kansas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the
Intermountain West with southwest mid-level flow located in the
southern and central Rockies into the central High Plains. A cluster
of strong thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of the trough in southeast
Colorado along a zone of low-level convergence east of the Sangre de
Cristos. This activity should move eastward across southeast
Colorado and into southwestern Kansas late this evening. As the
cluster of storms interacts with somewhat stronger instability
across southwestern Kansas, the severe threat should continue into
the overnight period. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be
possible with the stronger storms.

...Southeast...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are currently ongoing
from north-central Alabama eastward into Georgia. These storms are
located in a moderately unstable airmass where the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE values from 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg. This combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will continue to support isolated severe storm
development this evening. The storms will continue to move
east-southeastward across the Southeast for a couple more hours and
be accompanied by a wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 06/23/2019

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html