SPC MD 938

MD 0938 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS

Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2019

Areas affected...TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 012353Z - 020100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely develop and/or move into the TX South
Plains this evening and pose a risk for large hail/severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a southwestward-moving
outflow boundary over the southwestern part of the TX Panhandle
extending southeastward into the TX Low Rolling Plains.  Radar
mosaic shows several left and right-moving supercells over
southeastern NM with thunderstorms activity slowly encroaching on
the TX South Plains this evening.  

KLBB VAD data shows 30kt westerly 500mb flow atop low-level
southerlies yielding a wind profile supportive of storm
organization.  A warm/unstable boundary layer featuring temperatures
well into the 80s and surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s
northwest to the upper 60s southeast will likely prove favorable for
storm development as existing activity moves towards the TX South
Plains.  Recent HRRR time-lagged guidance depicts a scenario for
thunderstorms this evening as flow backs to southeasterly and
strengthens this evening in response to a LLJ.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34730175 34340122 33150104 32600133 32540289 34700303
            34730175 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0938.html