Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of north Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southern Missouri. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats. ...01z update... Severe probs have been adjusted south a bit across north-central TX to account for robust convection that has developed southwest of the Metroplex. Surface front is surging south across the southern Plains, arcing from south of ABI - north of FTW - southeast OK - into southwest MO. Convection that developed along the front across OK has progressed into AR and is less cellular in nature now that a near-continuous squall line has evolved. 00z sounding from FWD exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 3300 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates. Robust, more discrete convection has recently developed from Comanche County - Denton County. This activity should track northeast into the Metroplex over the next few hours. Large hail as been noted with several of these storms and this is the primary threat the remainder of the evening. Weaker buoyancy across the lower MS Valley suggests the squall line over AR should gradually weaken as it propagates toward central AR. ..Darrow.. 10/11/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
No comments:
Post a Comment