Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across portions of the central Plains, northern/southern Rockies, and the Southeast. ...Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will be noted tonight across the central Plains as short-wave ridging builds east ahead of northern Rockies short-wave trough. A few strong/severe thunderstorms developed along an east-west wind shift where strong boundary-layer heating allowed surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures. 00z sounding from DDC supports this with steep lapse rates through 5km along with a weak warm advection profile. LLJ should strengthen across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS after sunset and this could aid the longevity of isolated convection across this region. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Long-lived MCV that developed over the lower MS Valley has tracked northeast into south-central AL and is near MGM at 0030z. Earlier strong convection ahead of this feature has weakened, though an arcing band of weak thunderstorms currently extends from western GA into the FL Panhandle. Much of the air mass downstream over GA and SC has been overturned and significantly stabilized due to earlier convection. For these reasons, it appears only marginal severe probs will be needed the remainder of tonight. ...Northern Rockies... Significant mid-level short-wave trough has progressed into eastern WA/OR with a belt of stronger 500mb flow now extending across northern ID into central MT. 00z soundings from OTX and TFX sample this regime well with steep lapse rates and strong surface-6km shear. Gusty winds remain the primary threat with scattered convection ahead of this short wave. ...Southern Rockies... Scattered convection once again developed off the higher terrain of the southern Rockies, primarily driven by daytime heating. This activity is propagating slowly south and poses at least a marginal risk for hail and some wind, especially if thunderstorms NNW of TCC are able to organize. ..Darrow.. 06/25/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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