Mesoscale Discussion 0993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Areas affected...southwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301... Valid 250059Z - 250200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301 continues. SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe gusts are likely through 9pm CDT with a severe thunderstorm cluster approaching Greensburg/Dodge City. DISCUSSION...The 7pm CDT Dodge City observed sounding showed dry adiabatic lapse rates (9.8 degrees C/km in the 0-3 km layer) and an inverted-v structure in the deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE was sampled. Southerly low-level flow veers to westerly and northwesterly in the mid to upper levels and is resulting in around 35-40 kt effective shear. As the surface temperatures gradually cool this evening, convective inhibition will slowly increase. However, the steep lapse rates immediately above the cooling near-surface layer will still favor ample evaporative cooling with the stronger downdraft pulses. Severe gusts 60-75 mph are possible before this activity likely weakens during the late evening hours (roughly 10pm onward). ..Smith.. 06/25/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC... LAT...LON 38139964 37819912 37109915 37169996 38139964Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0993.html
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