SPC Jul 2, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening across parts of western Kansas, southwest Texas, and eastern
North Carolina.  A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
overnight from parts of southeast Kansas into the Ozarks.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the Pacific
Northwest with a series of smaller-scale disturbances rotating
through the base of the trough.  A blocking pattern featuring a
ridge farther east over the Great Lakes/MS Valley is located west of
a closed mid-level low over southern New England.  Through tonight,
little movement of the large-scale features is forecast.

...Western KS...
Isolated severe thunderstorms have developed over western KS late
this afternoon aided in part by a moist/unstable boundary layer.  As
diurnal heating wanes early this evening and convective inhibition
increases, storms will likely weaken and diminish by the mid evening
hours.  Until then, large hail and severe gusts are possible with
the stronger cores.  Reference MCD #1075.

...Southwest TX...
Early this evening convective outflow from several areas of
high-based convection will continue to collide and serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development early this evening.  Marginally severe
hail and isolated severe gusts are the main threats before this
activity weakens during the evening.

...Eastern NC...
The trailing portion of a weak disturbance, rotating through the
base of the New England closed low, will likely continue to support
thunderstorm activity through the late evening across eastern NC and
the adjacent Gulf Stream waters.  Isolated damaging gusts are the
primary risk but the intensity and coverage of damaging gusts will
likely dwindle during the evening as the low-levels slowly cool near
the coast.

...Southeast KS into the Ozarks overnight...
A trailing boundary oriented from southeast to northwest may serve
as a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight.  A
very moist and moderately unstable airmass will conditionally
support a marginal hail and severe gust risk tonight.

..Smith.. 07/02/2020

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html